In a shift from previous predictions, a recent CNBC Fed Survey shows that 48% of top U.S. economists and fund managers now expect Vice President Kamala Harris to win the upcoming presidential election, while 41% forecast a victory for former President Donald Trump. This marks a change from July, when 50% of respondents predicted a Trump win and just 37% anticipated Harris’ success. Despite more respondents believing Trump would be better for the stock market and economy, a majority said Harris would be better for the country overall.
The survey, conducted between September 12 and 14, came shortly after the first debate between Harris and Trump. Harris has been building her campaign around economic policies aimed at helping the middle class and reducing living costs, while Trump is focused on tax cuts, tariffs, and reversing some Biden-era infrastructure investments.
Respondents were divided on which candidate would best handle the economy, with 44% favoring Trump and 41% supporting Harris. However, 52% believe Harris would be better for the country overall, compared to 37% for Trump. The economists also expect Harris to respect the Federal Reserve’s independence, while only 42% said the same for Trump.
As the November election nears, economists are watching both candidates’ policies closely, especially in light of concerns over inflation, economic growth, and budget deficits.
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