Putin Orders Troop Increase as Sanctions Strain Russian Economy, Expert Warns of Lessons for China

In a new development in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, President Vladimir Putin has called for another increase in troop levels, marking the third such escalation since the war began. As Russia’s military mobilizes, questions about the effectiveness of international sanctions continue to swirl.

Stephanie Baker, author of the recently released book Punishing Putin, weighed in on the current state of sanctions against Russia during an interview, suggesting that while the sanctions have not forced Russia out of Ukraine, they have inflicted damage on the country’s economy. “If you define success as driving Putin out of Ukraine, they’ve failed. But if you look at the impact on Russia’s economy, especially in areas like oil revenues and defense production, then the sanctions have had some success,” Baker said.

Baker also noted that Russia has found ways to circumvent some of the economic restrictions, particularly through oil sales. Russia has assembled a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers, allowing it to continue exporting despite the sanctions. Countries like India have stepped in as major buyers of Russian oil, taking advantage of the discounts offered by Moscow.

“India increased its oil imports from Russia to 40%, which allowed Russia to recover some of the revenue lost due to sanctions. Until the U.S. and Europe can find a way to cap Putin’s oil revenues effectively, it will be hard to fully curb Russia’s economic resilience,” Baker explained.

Despite these loopholes, Baker emphasized that stronger enforcement of the sanctions regime could further strain Russia’s economy. She also pointed to the challenge of balancing these efforts with concerns over global oil prices, which have made some governments hesitant to pursue more aggressive measures.

Looking ahead, Baker suggested that the international community should consider the broader implications of these sanctions, particularly as tensions rise with China. “The sanctions on Russia were a grand experiment, and the lessons learned could apply to future conflicts, especially if China poses a similar threat,” she remarked. Unlike Russia’s reliance on oil, China dominates global manufacturing, which could create an even more complex challenge for the West.

As the war in Ukraine grinds on, Baker’s analysis underscores the importance of continued international pressure, while highlighting the difficulties of navigating a global economy that remains intertwined with countries like Russia and China.